“Sebastian Vettel beats Hamilton to clinch the 2018 season!”
No sooner than Sebastian Vettel won back-to-back races right at the start- at Melbourne, then, at Sakhir- did fans unite in an anticipation of the above.
You could hardly point a finger at Sebastian Vettel’s fans when he won at two Hamilton-territories- so to speak- winning by a comfortable margin at Montreal, Canadian Grand Prix, and later, snatching a fair win at Silverstone, the home of the British Grand Prix.
This hadn’t happened before; Vettel thumping Hamilton in the latter’s green zones.
But what seemed initially as a headline borne out of a certainty, now seems like an unlikely event, given how combative Hamilton’s form has been vis-a-vis the rather sedate runs seen by the Ferrari driver at Singapore, Hungary, and Monza.
But fans cannot still be blamed for hoping Vettel beats Hamilton
You needn’t be just a Tifosi to desire that outcome. But, at the end of the day, it’s not easy to garner a feat like that.
To beat Lewis Hamilton, after all, is a feat- isn’t it?
Lewis Hamilton is inarguably, the better driver under pressure. Picture Baku and Hungaroring. He is also, what most would’ve seen by now, a better maneuverer under wet-weather. Picture Hockenheim.
Therefore, to beat him is no less arduous than climbing the Himalayas in the current context. He owned Singapore, he thrived under pressure at the German Grand Prix and seemed to belong nowhere else but at the top at France.
For the Ferrari driver to beat the Briton, it requires fortitude beyond measure.
To be fair to Sebastian Vettel, one’s got to suggest that beating Hamilton on the trot would much rather earn a driver a “Lewis Hamilton” trophy.
Does Vettel have that- fans may not wonder?
But probably the fraternity comprising of racing nerds, columnists, vloggers and opinion-makers may not exactly be sitting with their fingers crossed.
Should Formula 1 worked on the principle of guesswork and permutations and combinations, one may have sat down for a Grand Prix with a Wurst in one hand, and some finely-crafted German lager in the other.
The task now in front of Sebastian Vettel is pretty straightforward.
He’s got to win every single Grand Prix.
Including Russia, that begins in the next few hours, there are only six that remain, at Suzuka, Mexico City, Interlagos, Texas, and Abu Dhabi, respectively.
That’s how simple the math is at present.
But let’s first look at some numbers, for now. At present, the gap between first-placed Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel is that of 40 points. Daunting- yes! Undoable- no!
Let’s consider a situation.
Should Sebastian Vettel win each and every Grand Prix in the remainder of the season as the championship stands anywhere but on a knife’s edge, he’d finish on 391 points.
At the same time, should Hamilton stand second on every single race, he’d collect 389 points. The end result, then, would be Vettel winning a season that seemed out of his grasp by a margin as thin as 2 points.
But having said that, Formula 1 is yet to partner with a Hollywood studio to etch a sci-fi narrative. Nor has anyone seen the equivalent of the Avatar pan out in the tumultuous world of motor-racing.
But even if one were to eventually raise a toast to Sebastian doing the unthinkable- a possibility stemming from him having produced a juggernaut at Red Bull for four back-to-back seasons- can Lewis lag behind suddenly and evidence a dip in form?
Sure that is how you’d rate Lewis’ impending fortunes should he bag a P2 in the rest of the races, ever since witnessing a new spike in from starting Monza.
This imagined mayhem by Ferrari seems improbable.
And when you factor in some numbers from the rest of the races, you realise how distant do Vettel’s chances seam.
Last year, the Russian Grand Prix was won by a Mercedes driver. It was Bottas. Next up, at Suzuka, another Mercedes driver won. His name happens to be Lewis Hamilton. He won it also in 2015 and 2014 seasons while Vettel’s last win at Japan came in a Red Bull, in 2013.
Then, moving on to Mexico, the race was won by Max Verstappen. A year back, it was Hamilton who prevailed here. Only at Brazil has Vettel beaten Hamilton, as seen the last year. But if you were to rewind back to 2016, then it was all-Hamilton, once again.
Also, should Vettel do a repeat of his last year’s dominant win at Senna-land, by then it would be too late, isn’t it?
Finally, at the USA and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix, the Ferraris haven’t been really all that strong. Mercedes claimed both the races, as of last year.
For Ferrari to do the impossible, Vettel will now have to do the indomitable. The question isn’t whether ‘can he.’ The question is, will he be allowed to reign given how strong the Mercedes is.